Signs for investors: week starting June 21, 2021


Australia: data on retail spending, trade, employment and wealth in the spotlight

  • Preliminary retail and international trade data headlines another busy week on Australia’s data dossier. The purchasing managers’ indices will be closely watched as well as the employment and wealth figures.
  • The week starts on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases preliminary figures on retail trade. Economists expect spending to rise 0.5% in May.
  • Tuesday, ANZ and Roy Morgan jointly publish the Weekly Consumer Confidence Survey. And the ABS publishes weekly data on jobs and wages for the period up to June 5, 2021.
  • Wednesday, the Preliminary IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Indices for June are released. Australian manufacturing activity grew at a record pace in May. And the service sector saw the biggest employment increase on record in May.
  • Wednesday too ABS releases preliminary international trade data for May. Exports of goods hit an all-time high of $ 36 billion in April. And the detailed report of the National Skills Commission on Internet job vacancies for the month of May is published. In seasonally adjusted terms, vacancies rose 1.9 percent in May to a 12-and-a-half-year high of 245,400 available positions.
  • The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank (Economic), Luci Ellis, in front of the lectern Wednesday, the speech given at the Ai Group Business Luncheon in Adelaide at 12:45 p.m. ACST.
  • Thursday, ABS publishes the publication “Australian National Accounts: Finance and Wealth” for the March quarter. Australian household wealth rose $ 501.5 billion or 4.3% to a record $ 12,033.5 billion in the December quarter. And household net wealth per capita reached an all-time high of $ 467,709 at the end of 2020.
  • Thursday also, ABS ‘ “Commercial conditions and sentiments” The survey will detail business income, investments and hiring plans in June. And May’s detailed labor force statistics by industry round out a busy week.

Overseas: U.S. Economic Growth, Housing and Manufacturing Data at a Glance

  • There are a number of US economic indicators to watch over the coming week, including economic growth (GDP), home sales, regional manufacturing surveys, and personal income and expenditure.
  • Week starts Monday in China with the announcement of the preferential rates for 1-year and 5-year loans. No changes are planned. In a calm week for China, the March quarter current account balance is also due Friday.
  • Monday in the United States, the Chicago Federal Reserve releases its national activity index for the month of May.
  • Tuesday in the United States, the usual weekly sales figures for Johnson Redbook chain stores are released with the Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index and data on existing home sales.
  • Previously owned U.S. home sales are estimated to have fallen for a fourth straight month in May – down about 2.4% to an annual rate of 5.71 million – as lack of inventory pushes prices higher. highest level price, limiting purchases.
  • Wednesday, preliminary June purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) are expected for developed economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the eurozone and Japan. The activity of factories and services rebounded with the reopening of economies and the increase in vaccination rates. Activity is growing at a record pace in the United States, fueled by the stimulus measures.
  • Wednesday in the USA, The usual weekly mortgage application figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are expected alongside new home sales and current account data for the March quarter.
  • Rising US home prices and construction delays weighed on new home sales in April (-5.9%), but a partial rebound of 2.2% is expected in May, the annual rate sales to increase from 863,000 to 882,000 units.
  • Thursday in the United States, Weekly data on jobless claims (initial jobless claims) are released along with durable goods orders, wholesale inventories, the anticipated merchandise trade balance and the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing index.
  • In a busy day on the US data registry Thursday, the focus will be on the third and final estimate of US economic growth for the March quarter. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 6.4% in the second estimate of the first quarter, as measured by GDP, fueled by government stimulus measures and a reopening of the economy.
  • Thursday also, the US Federal Reserve is expected to release the results of bank stress tests, which could shake up financial markets.
  • Friday, economists expect personal income (-2.9 percent) and spending (up 0.3 percent) measures to be mixed in May. The core index of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.7% in April – the highest since October 2001 – to be up 3.1% from a year ago. And the PCE deflator – the preferred inflation target of the US Federal Reserve – rose 3.6% in April from a year earlier.

Originally published by Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, CommSec


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